Good morning all,
Not that you're necessarily reading this in the morning, it just has a morning paper feel to me. There's been some talk about how much of a recession we're in and different parts of the country are doing differently so I just wanted to take a more focused look into that. Also, I haven't done a PA markets article so it seemed like a good time.
Sources and Method:
Included here is data from Bright on Delaware, Chester, and Philadelphia counties in PA. In the following graphs the timelines are August 2008 - 2009 and August 2021 - 2022. The US Inflation Calculator adjusted prices from 2008/2009 for cumulative monthly inflation. Adjusting for monthly inflation gives a more precise dollar amount than a yearly average. Month-to-month changes and daily activities are more of what we're interested in here so I wanted to be able to provide that precision.
Things are not as bad as the Great Recession! Not a huge surprise, but still nice to see confirmed. Especially in Philadelphia County where the 2021 - 2022 median sales price is consistently above the 2008 - 2009 median sales price.
In Delaware and Chester counties the 2021 - 2022 median sale price is closer to the inflation-adjusted prices from 2008 - 2009.
In Delaware county in particular the median home price has stayed very close to inflation-adjusted levels. Except for July into August.
All three counties showed a sharp decrease in the number of homes sold during June when the Fed started really raising rates.
But Delaware County has already reversed that direction.
Percent comparisons between August 2021 and August 2022. The number of homes sold has decreased in all three counties. Delaware has seen the least amount of change, while significantly fewer people are buying homes in Chester than in August last year.
Given the past year's record inflation levels let's adjust the 2021 median price to determine real dollar power in comparison to last year.
Compared to last year real home prices have actually decreased in Philadelphia County. Delaware County, however, is doing the best of the three in terms of increased price and number of homes sold. That's somewhat good news for people who already own homes in the county.
The next few months are likely to be tighter. The Fed plans on raising rates again, which will reduce demand. Also, fewer people in the mid-Atlantic region want to move in the winter. The news is better for buyers, and their agents, who may want to luxuriate in seller concessions. It also means buyers can be pickier. For example, buyers will have more freedom to get potential dream homes inspected to make sure the dream home really is a dream and not a nightmare.
For everyone else, I'm sorry I don't have happier conclusions. I offer this adorable picture of a corgi-dalmatian mix in consolation:
Thanks for reading!